Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
505
FXUS63 KDLH 210135
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
735 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold temperatures continue with the strong winds for today, a
relative warm up is expected next week, including highs in the
mid and upper 30s on Christmas Day.
- Mixed precipitation is expected Sunday night into Monday.
Uncertainty in precipitation types from the track and thermal
profile remain.
- More seasonal temperatures return over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
A very active and cold weather pattern continues across the
Northland this afternoon. Strong winds and frigid air arriving
behind a departing weather system are producing hazardous
conditions, especially for those near the water. While we expect
mostly sunny skies for much of the area tomorrow, the cold air
will remain firmly in place through the beginning of the week.
Attention then shifts to a disturbance arriving on Sunday night
into Monday from the south ahead of a large upper level ridge.
Warm air aloft will move over cold air at the surface, creating
a complex setup for mixed precipitation. While uncertainty is
still high in the placement of precipitation, current models
suggest the southern parts of our region, particularly areas
closer to central Minnesota, have the greatest possibility of
freezing rain and light ice accumulations Sunday night into
early Monday morning. Areas further north and east into
northwestern Wisconsin will likely see light snow, though
accumulations currently look to be less than an inch.
Temperatures reach above normal for Christmas week underneath
the warm air behind the Monday system, with the warmest high
temperatures on Christmas Day ranging from 33 to 40.
Looking ahead toward the post-holiday weekend, a significant
weather system is appearing in the long-range guidance. While
the exact track remains uncertain, there is a growing signal for
high-impact snowfall across the region. We will continue to
monitor this developing situation as more data becomes
available.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 511 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
MVFR to VFR ceilings in stratus to start the TAF period at HIB
and in the Arrowhead will scatter out to VFR this evening as the
clipper system exits to our east, and cold, drier air arrives
in its wake. VFR conditions are then expected for the remainder
of the 00Z TAF period as surface high pressure slides in tonight
into Sunday. Gusty surface winds of 20-30 kt to start the TAF
period will weaken this evening and tonight, with winds backing
southwest overnight and to southerly on Sunday. Afternoon gusts
on Sunday could reach to 15 kt, with the best potential from
central Minnesota east to northwest Wisconsin, including BRD and
HYR.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 736 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025
Wind gusts are dropping off quicker than forecast for most of
the western Lake Superior nearshore waters. Therefore, the Gale
Warnings have been replaced by Small Craft Advisories, with the
exception of Grand Marais to Grand Portage where gusts to 35-40
kt persist into early tonight. Waves will gradually subside
tonight as winds rapidly weaken, as well. With colder air in
place and higher waves along the South Shore, a Heavy Freezing
Spray Warning remains in effect along the South Shore into
tonight. All marine Advisories and Warnings in the nearshore of
western Lake Superior persist until 4 AM CST Sunday. Winds
gradually back to southwesterly and become less strong for
daytime Sunday, sustained at 5 to 15 kt with gusts of 15 to 20
kt.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ121-141>148-
150.
Gale Warning until 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ140.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM CST Sunday for
LSZ145>148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
