Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
155
FXUS63 KDLH 232323
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across north-central
Minnesota later this afternoon and evening. Hail to around
half dollar size, gusty winds, and a few tornadoes will be
possible.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and early evening.
Strong or severe storms are not currently expected, but funnel
clouds and perhaps a brief, weak tornado cannot be ruled out.
- A more summer-like pattern sets up for the end of the week
into early next week with increasing moisture and temperatures
before chances for storms return Sunday into the new week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
High pressure was located over the Mid-Mississippi Valley early
this afternoon with an area of low pressure south of Lake
Manitoba just north of the International Border. A cold front
trailed across the eastern Dakotas into Nebraska with a short
warm front extending southeastward into southeast Minnesota. An
area of showers and thunderstorms extending from the Twin Ports
area back into central Minnesota. Some clearing was observed on
satellite behind this area of rainfall across northwestern
Minnesota. This will help build some instability ahead of the
cold front to around 700-800 J/kg in north-central Minnesota.
Effective shear looks to increase to 35 to 40 knots, which will
be supportive of a few supercells along with clusters of storms.
Mid-level lapse rates look pretty marginal, but any discrete
storm that can develop a mesocyclone will have the potential to
produce hail to the size of half dollars or ping pong balls.
DCAPE will only be around 500-600 J/kg, so not as high of a
damaging wind threat, but there are winds 70-80 knots aloft that
could be mixed down. Any storm that crosses the warm front will
have the potential to become tornadic, especially if storms ride
along the front. The greatest threat for severe weather this
afternoon and evening will be mainly across northwestern
Minnesota into central Minnesota. In the Northland, this would
be south of a Cass Lake to Brainerd line for any tornado threat
with the hail and gusty winds being possible west of a Ash Lake
to McGregor to Isle line.
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will remain possible
overnight and into Wednesday as the area of low pressure moved
through the region. This will be more akin to a fall system
being cold core. Would not be surprised if a few funnel clouds
or even a weak tornado occurred Wednesday, especially in the
vicinity of the low. Rainfall tapers off Wednesday night as the
low moves to the southeast and high pressure builds in across
the Upper Midwest. Dry conditions are expected to prevail for
Thursday and most of Friday with southerly return flow bringing
near normal temperatures in the 70s along with increasing
moisture. A weak shortwave may pass through late Friday and
could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms.
An upper ridge moves through the Upper Midwest for Saturday into
Sunday with warmer temperatures reaching into the 70s and 80s
with ever increasing moisture. Models have diverged for the end
of the weekend and into early next week. While there will be
increased chances for storminess as the upper ridge moves to the
east, timing and locations of the waves on the west side of the
ridge remain nebulous. Given the heat, increasing moisture, and
more of a summer pattern, strong to severe storms will be
possible somewhere from the Northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest heading into next week. PWATs look to reach 1.5" plus
during this time, which would be above the 90th percentile for
late June. This may lead to heavy rainfall at times, which is
certainly needed given the increasing drought conditions in the
region.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Widely scattered to isolated showers and storms are present
along an occluded front in west-central Minnesota and slowly
moving east into this evening. A couple of these storms may
become strong to severe in north-central MN/BRD vicinity but
potential is low. Large hail and erratic thunderstorm gusts
would be the main threats along with the potential for MVFR to
IFR conditions if a storm moves directly overhead. Shower coverage
decreases with eastward extent later this evening into tonight,
with thunderstorm potential also decreasing, so tried to time
out peak potential overnight, but high-resolution models are
poorly handling this activity. As an area of low pressure moves
in tonight into early Wednesday morning, expect MVFR to IFR
ceilings with pockets of IFR or lower fog, with the best
potential at DLH and HYR. , this will bring MVFR to IFR
ceilings along with areas of IFR or lower fog. Conditions
gradually improve Wednesday morning, but ceilings should still
be near the MVFR/VFR threshold in the late morning and afternoon
as scattered diurnal showers and storms develop on Wednesday.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Easterly winds of 5 to 15 knots will continue this afternoon and
into this evening. A few gusts to around 20 knots will be
possible near the Twin Ports for a few hours late this afternoon
and early evening. Winds will remain easterly for Wednesday at 5
to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots along the North Shore.
Winds will diminish to around 5 to 10 knots Wednesday night.
High pressure brings variable winds at 10 knots or less for
Thursday before turning easterly for Friday at 5 to 15 knots,
strongest near the Twin Ports.
Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. No strong or severe
storms are currently expected, but gusty and erratic winds,
small hail, and heavy downpours will be possible along with
cloud-to-water lightning.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026
Showers and thunderstorms will move across the region this
afternoon and tonight with activity lingering for Wednesday,
although with less coverage. Rainfall amounts will vary
depending on where storms move with amounts in the 0.10 to 0.40
inch range through tomorrow evening. Isolated higher amounts to
0.50 to 0.75 inches will be possible in any stronger storms.
With abundant cloud cover and periods of rainfall tomorrow,
afternoon RH values will remain well above 50%. Drier conditions
arrive for Thursday and Friday with afternoon RH values falling
to around 40 to 45 percent with isolated areas as low as 35
percent, mainly in the Arrowhead. Winds will remain under 20 mph
through the rest of the week outside of any storms.
See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
