Latest Duluth Area Text Forecast Discussion product from NWS:
264
FXUS63 KDLH 050605
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1205 AM CST Wed Nov 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weak system brings light rain this evening, with some
snowflakes mixing in tonight over northern Minnesota.
- Cooler, near normal, temperatures return for the rest of the
work week. Temperatures dip below normal this weekend.
- Cold air surges southward for the weekend, with chances of
rain/snow Saturday and Sunday. At this time snow amounts
appear negligible, less than a few tenths of an inch.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
A compact and fast-moving low pressure system will transit the
region tonight and Wednesday. Considerable dry air aloft ahead
of this system was noted on regional RAOBs this morning. Radar
returns over the Northland are virga at the moment. Farther west
in central North Dakota precipitation was reaching the ground.
Expect the column to saturate from west to east this evening
with light rain expected over the northern half of the area. A
few snowflakes may mix in over portions of the Arrowhead where
temperatures will be coldest. Rainfall amounts of a few
hundredths to a few tenths are forecast. Areas generally south
of a line from Hayward to Duluth to Cass Lake may stay dry.
Winds will become gusty early Wednesday morning in the immediate
wake of the surface low as cold air advection sets in and keeps
the boundary layer mixed.
A surface ridge crosses the area Wednesday, with cold advection
continuing under northwesterly upper level flow. This will
bring temperatures down to seasonal norms, with highs in the 40s
and lower 50s Wednesday and Thursday, and overnight lows in the
20s Wednesday night.
Upper level pattern remains active for the end of the week and
the weekend. There will be a chance of rain and snow showers
with the first clipper Thursday and Friday morning. That low
pressure system will track near the Canadian border and most of
the precipitation will fall in Ontario. Isentropic lift ahead of
the surface low may produce some light rain showers Thursday
afternoon and evening over northeast Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin.
Another upper-level trough will pass over the Northland
Saturday and Sunday. Much colder air will push southward behind
this system with weekend temperatures dropping to 8 to 12
degrees below normal. Highs Saturday and Sunday will remain in
the 30s, with much of north central and northeast Minnesota
remaining at or below freezing. Overnight lows will be in the
teens and lower 20s. The colder temperatures will allow a
potential for rain and snow Saturday, with a small chance of
accumulating snow (around 10% of at least a tenth of an inch).
Northwest winds and cold air advection will continue Sunday and
Monday. Lake Superior surface water temperatures are in the 40s
F (5 to 8 C). Temperatures at 850 mb will be around -13 C.
Favorable upstream moisture will set the stage for lake effect
snow showers over northwest Wisconsin early next week. There is
about a 20 to 40 percent chance of an inch or more of
accumulation over Ashland and Iron counties with lower
probabilities farther west and south.
Yet another weak system may affect the area Tuesday and
Wednesday next with with additional light precipitation chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
Low pressure system is moving east across the region tonight,
with widespread overcast skies and light precipitation. The
back edge of the stratus deck and light rain has now moved
through INL and will clear BRD within a couple hours. A period
of MVFR cigs is expected ahead of the clearing line, and already
seeing those reductions at HIB. Cannot rule out a few snowflakes
mixing in, but dominant precip type will remain rain. VFR cigs
and clearing skies are expected early Wednesday morning.
As the system continues eastward overnight, winds increase from
the northwest. Winds will remain elevated through the day
Wednesday, with gusts of 20-25kts. Winds diminish Wednesday
evening.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025
A fast-moving clipper will bring gusty winds to western Lake
Superior tonight and Wednesday. Winds will back northwesterly
and wind speeds will increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts of 20
to 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories were issued this afternoon
for the nearshore waters starting with the North Shore, Outer
Apostles, and Oak Point to Saxon Harbor at 4 AM and adding the
remainder of the waters at 10 AM. Waves along the South Shore
and Outer Apostle Islands will build to 2 to 6 feet. Wind and
waves subside Wednesday evening as high pressure builds into the
region. Another clipper will pass along the Canadian Border
Thursday and Friday. Winds may become gusty both ahead of the
low pressure system and in its wake. Additional Small Craft
Advisories will likely be needed late this week. Much colder air
will pour into the region Saturday and Sunday. Strong winds and
building waves are expected in addition to lake effect snow
showers. The strongest winds will be Sunday and Monday.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CST Wednesday for
LSZ121-145>147.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CST Wednesday for
LSZ140>144-148-150.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...Huyck
NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion
